The first half of 2021 was marked by growth for the Russian market. Will the market be optimistic until the end of the year and what papers to pay attention to, an independent expert, economist Konstantin Tserazov told in our interview.
Despite the corrections, the market managed to stay positive in the first half of the year — since the beginning of the year, the Moscow Exchange index has grown by 14.7%, while the RTS index has added 17.1%. The optimism on the markets was brought by the weakening of geopolitical tensions and the threat of sanctions pressure, the recovery in demand for raw materials and the soft monetary policy of world central banks, the expert believes. The high rates of vaccination of the population in the United States and Europe also played their role, giving rise to hopes for a restoration of demand for raw materials, and primarily oil, says Konstantin Tserazov. According to Otkritie Bank analysts, oil showed the best growth among commodities — amid production cuts by OPEC+ countries, the price of a barrel of Brent brand jumped by 45% to $75. Positive markets were added by statistics from China, which showed an increase in industrial production and retail sales, as well as a sharp increase in oil demand at the beginning of the year.
The key risks, according to Konstantin Tserazov, until the end of the year will remain geopolitics, sanctions pressure, as well as the possibility of a worsening epidemiological situation. Another important factor that can slow down the growth of the Russian market will be the possible tightening of monetary policy by the leading countries.
The growth driver until the end of the year will be the expectations of high dividends, and until the end of the year investors will focus on «blue chips» with a good dividend history, Konstantin Tserazov is sure. The beneficiary of the economic recovery will be the banking sector, primarily Sberbank, which can show record profits and, accordingly, pay high dividends. In the oil and gas industry, Gazprom looks like a clear favorite, whose shares are growing on expectations of the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 and strong reporting. The potential dividend yield of this issuer’s shares, according to analysts at Otkritie Bank, may exceed 10%. According to Konstantin Tserazov, LUKOIL may become one of the leaders in dividend yield at the end of 2021, it is also worth including Surgutneftegaz preferred shares in the dividend portfolio, the economist advises.
